Following 2018 draftees

Discussion in 'Prospects' started by Ozymandias, Jul 25, 2017.

  1. Dime Dropper

    Dime Dropper Well-Known Member

    I'm not disrespecting Embiid. People forget that the best NBA players came from somewhere too. Embiid put up 19/14/4/2/1 per 40 minutes in college. Ayton is putting up 26/17/2/2/1 per 40 minutes. Of course the season is extremely young and it's unlikely that Ayton will sustain that level of dominance, but based on what we've seen so far, Ayton has been every bit as impressive as Embiid was as a prospect. Embiid may have had a better low post game, and he was also a better defender, but Ayton to me looks even more fluid/coordinated as an athlete and also has much better hands. I believe he has more potential to stretch the floor also.

    I'm not saying he's going to be better than Embiid, the odds are always against a young player reaching that level. However, he does have that sort of talent.

    Regarding Doncic, he's definitely the most skilled player in the draft. He's awesome and I'd have no issues taking him ahead of Bagley/Porter etc., but I'm obviously very high on Ayton. For me at this moment in time, it would be 1. Ayton 2. Doncic 3. Bagley.
  2. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    It’s not about stats look st the way Embiid scores vs Ayton. Ayton will be good but I’m not taking him over Doncic what Doncic is doing at his age is absurd.
  3. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    I probably haven't watched 1/10th the college ball that you guys have but I haven't really been impressed with Ayton in the little I've seen. Seems like he's taken advantage of much smaller players so far. My main concern is his defense. It looked pretty bad to me, like he had no feel and no awareness on that side of the ball at all. He was just standing around watching a lot like Jahlil Okafor does. Hopefully I just caught some bad moments and that's not how he plays all the time.
  4. Sactown ExPat

    Sactown ExPat Member

    Like I said, if we pick outside the top 3 we will likely have redundant young players, depending on how you feel about Porter. If we pick #5 or later then we will 100% have redundancy. There is no point in dropping down a tier in prospect for hopeful position fits, i.e Bamba vs Sexton. Both are duplicative of current talent, but right now Sexton seems a tier above. Having said that though, play Fox and Sexton together—Fox guards the 2...problem solved and all diamonds still shining.

    It’s not the team we’re trying to build, but those two plus our young bigs would be a fun team. IMO, we are hoping for Doncic to come in and make this offense flow the way Joerger wants, then swing for the fences in 2019 free agency.
  5. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    For me, finishing up Doncic profile will come down to measurements. I have yet to see an official measurement of him. There's going to be a big difference between being 6'7 with a 6'9 wingspan and being 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan. I want to know if he has the length to play SF. At SF, he'll be playing PG anyways, but even in today's position-less basketball, you still need a position to guard. I have serious doubts that he'll be able to defend SGs, but I think he can fair ok on SFs if he has the length.

    His size will also be important for offense in determining who guards him. I hate hypotheticals, but let's say he's 6'7 with a 6'9 wingspan. That's not big enough to guard SFs, so he'll be guarding SGs. He'll have troubles guarding SGs because they're too fast for him. On the other end, he'll have troubles penetrating against SGs because they're too fast. Yes he can get stronger and just pound his way in against SGs, but adding strength means he'll gets slower..which means more defensive problems. Here, you would really be hoping that he develops great ball handling to makeup for his lack of speed.

    HOWEVER, let's say he's 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan. From that, he'll continue to bulk up and add more strength. He'll have the length, strength, and quickness to defend SFs. He'll be quick enough to the point where they can't blow by him. He'll have enough strength to contain them. On the other end, he's quick enough to blow by SFs. He'll also be strong enough to the point where he can bully smaller SFs with his additional 20+lbs. Here, you don't have to put pressure on him to develop his ball handling. He's got the athleticism to make up for it since he'll be defended by heavier SFs and vise-versa.
    In an ideal world, the bigger Doncic is, the more successful he'll be in the NBA. I think he's just a step too slow for the SG position.

    Even with all of the mystery around his size, Doncic is the most skilled 18yearold we've seen in over a decade. He's the most complete player in this draft. We still have a lot of college season left for players to slide up and down. If Ayton shows that he can't dominate the same way against bigger and more mature players, he probably slides down a few slots. If Bagley's skills only extend so far to where his motor can't make it up, he'll slide down too.

    Imo, eventually, I think Doncic will solidify himself as the #1 prospect when the college guys start showing their flaws. We have over 90+ game tapes on Doncic in the past 2 years in Europe. Whereas, we only have 7 games of the other guys in the college level. When I personally scout prospects, I don't take account anything I see before college. Porter Jr is the only exception because we have no choice lol

    Right now, I have Doncic and Ayton at the same level. This can change between now and the draft though. A whole 7 months before the draft
  6. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    Bamba is the kind of duplication you can live with because of his potential to impose his will on a game in another area than just scoring. Porter is the same way, physical gifts and size that set him apart. I think the Kings are farther from set in their FC than the back court. Willie will hopefully pan out to be the man at C and Skal at PF but Joerger hasn't even really given them the chance to show if they can succeed as a tandem yet which is a lack of necessary information heading into the draft.

    You play Sexton and Fox and you are still small at a position where there are some bigger, stronger players that shift down these days. The league is trending towards SF's that slide to both PF and play some SG. You can't be that small and not just be patching holes at the end of the day.
  7. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    I think wingspan is given too much importance sometimes. Doncic has shorter arms for sure, but he's also got a big body and moves his feet well which make up for it. I agree with much of what you're saying though. Those are the issues with him. I still think at the end of the day he might end up guarding PF much of the time. In that way the Gallinari and Kukoc comparisons jive. Obviously he doesn't have their size/length though which is a concern.
  8. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Cole Zwicker discussed Doncic's height in one of his podcasts, and said that he's a legit 6'8". He didn't comment on his wingspan. I have total trust in Zwicker. He's one of the most knowledgeable guys around. He also commented on Doncic's strength, saying that he was deceptively strong and surprises people with his strength.
  9. biltalent

    biltalent Well-Known Member

    The more I watch of this college class, the more underwhelmed I am of the players at the top. Feels like they all have great tools and tease you in highligh videos, but when you break their game down it will just not contribute to NBA Team success. On the other hand, a few other guys have really impressed me.

    Some scouting notes:

    Mo Bamba:
    I had high hopes for him, but the floor game is just not there. Will get his share of blocks but not a smart defender. Takes poor angles. Low motor. Not a good frame. On offense, slow making decision. Doesnt know how to roll out of pick and rolls. Wants to prove he can shoot. Reminds me a lot of Willie Cauley-Stein with longer arms and less athleticism.

    DeAndre Ayton
    The positive: He plays with energy which was a huge question mark. Very productive. The bad: Not an impact defender, especially around the rim. Shot is very flat, even short-arms free-thows. If he cant protect the rim or shoot in the NBA he will be a backup C.

    Marvin Bagley:
    Ultra productive early on, you cant take that from him. I struggled to think of comps initially, but I think now Ive got it. He basically is John Collins. Not a rim protector but quick feet. Not a good 3 point shooter shooter but highly efficient inside. If you lok at their stats in college they are laughably similar. Hence, just like Colins I like Bagley as a situational player, but to take him top 3 I need to see more.

    I am not saying they necessarily will be bad, but there is much more risk attached to them than thought initially if you take them too high. If you put them in last years draft I dont think I take any of them top five.

    Going to guys that impressed me:

    Mikal Bridges:
    Oh boy. Defense is as good as ever and he is absolutely shooting the **** out of the ball right now. Through 7 games he is taking 6.6 3PTA per 40 which he makes at 49%. Points per game are up from 9.8 to 17.9.

    Jaren Jackson Jr:
    If you are looking for a defensive big that can stretch the floor you cant look past him. Very advanced perimeter defensive for his age. Very young. Can shoot it.

    Trae Young:
    Oh boy, I bet every night before going to bed, Vivek is sending Vlade highlight clips of this guy bombing threes and telling him per voice message Young is the next Steph Curry and that he better draft him #1 overall instaed of this Euro-kid. All jokes aside, Trae Young is incredibly good. He is currently averaging 28.8 points and 8.8 assists per game. Deadly shooter. He takes 9 FTAs per game, which is a good sign for all of us who are concerned he is the next Buddy Hield or Nik Stauskas. Very tight handle. He will still be 19 by the time he is drafted which shows that he is not just dominating younger guys but instead is incredibly skilled for his age. However, he needs to get stronger. Much stronger.

    So far it seems more and more to me that if you can not get Doncic, you better be trading down and get more value. Of course Divac is no stranger to trading down in the draft, so it will be interesting to se if he does it again this year.
  10. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Since I disagree with most, but not all of what you wrote, and I'm not in the mood to discuss it. Let me just say that I'm always amazed at how someone will take players that have been very productive, like Bagley and Ayton, nit pic their games, and conclude that we shouldn't draft them. On the other hand be critical of players that haven't been productive. It's a dammed if you do and dammed if you don't scenario. None of these players are finished products. Some are a step closer than others, and many times for good reasons. Like Willie who played football most of his young career and didn't start playing basketball until his sophmore or junior year of highschool. So what your drafting is the future of the player, not the now of the player.

    In short, any player you draft is a risk. The higher you can draft, the less risk there is, but there's still risk. IMHO, the last thing the Kings need to do is trade down to add add an additional pick. IMHO, the Kings have enough young players on the team and if they're going to add another, they should take the best player they can get, and the chances are better with a higher pick.
    206Fan, Suicide King and Telemachus like this.
  11. Dime Dropper

    Dime Dropper Well-Known Member

    I love Miles Bridges. Would love to get a second lottery pick to take him. Big, athletic, versatile, can get to the rim, shoot and defend. Very confident and high character guy too. Baja what are your thoughts on him?

    Salivating at the thought of coming away with one of Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Porter to go along with Bridges.
  12. Kingster

    Kingster Well-Known Member

    It doesn't take a basketball genius to see that Bagley oozes talent. I'm not going to have watch him in minute detail over the rest of the season to know that he's legit. He's going to do it all in the NBA - score, rebound, defend, 3 point shooting, you name it, he's going to eventually do it, as long as he stays healthy and takes care of his body. He would help this Kings team immediately, imo. Let the ping pong ball god be kind to the Kings so they can draft this guy.
    Telemachus likes this.
  13. biltalent

    biltalent Well-Known Member

    I also agree with a lot that you said here. I just wanted to add that of course my remarks are just my opinion and I am not in a position to judge whether to draft a player or not. Way to much data missing that NBA teams do have access to.
    Nevertheless I still enjoy scouting players. And thus, I will also point out my opinion of them. I also dont agree that I nitpic weaknesses. Both Bagley and Ayton do have serious concern when projecting them to the next level. If you are a center in the NBA you better protect the rim. Its the same thing with Karl Towns. He plays bad defense right now and you will have a tough time building around that defensively. That of course doesnt mean I wouldnt want Towns on my team. Of course I would! Because of his tools, there is always the chance that he figures it out. Same goes for Ayton and Bagley. But in the draft it gets more tricky because the decision for a player inevitably means that you pass on others . If I draft Ayton at 3 I cant get Jaren Jackson + Mikal Bridges later in the draft. Right now my feeling is that JJJ + wing player together will give the Kings more value than anyone else other than Doncic. Doesnt mean that Ayton is a bad pick though.
  14. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    Ayton's defense doesn't look very good at all to me but I haven't watched enough 18 year old center prospects to know what to expect from their defense. All I know is that when I watch him play, he does a solid enough job of staying on his guy but he completely ignores any sort of interior help, especially shot blocking. If the opposing PF gets by his man, Ayton just watches them score instead of stepping over to contest.
    biltalent likes this.
  15. biltalent

    biltalent Well-Known Member

    I think the best way to imagine it is on a hypothetical continuum, ranging from terrible defense to elite defense. Or you could also describe it in simple values, going from 0 too 100. Then, the question is, compared to other 18 years old, where do Ayton, Bagley and Jackson stand?
    Well, there two ways of looking at it now: Where do these guys stand absolutely on the continuum and where do they stand in relation to each other.

    I dont know the absolute standings of course, but I am pretty sure that Jackson is far ahead of Ayton and Bagley right now (keep also in mind that Jackson is about a year younger). Projecting from here in the future, there are now three plausible paths:
    (1) All three players develop positively and roughly the same
    (2) some players develop more positively than others
    (3) No players develop.

    I think we can exclude (3) as (1) and (2) are more plausible and more interesting.
    If we assume (1), the case is pretty clear: Jackson is always going to be a better defender than the others. There is no chance of passing him.
    Or we can assume (2). The question now is, who do we think will improve more? The one player that was already ahead of the others? This might be plausible. Maybe if a player is a better defender at one point he will find acquiring new defensive skills more easy. Maybe he just likes playing defense more than other players and puts more energy into it. However we could also say that Bagley/Ayton will improve more. Maybe their superior physical tools allow them to translate learned things to the court more effectively.
    And there is also the factor of coaching. Maybe one player gets better coaching and thus develops more quickly.

    I have no answer to this. But I am pretty sure with this: The further along Jackson is compared to Bagley/Ayton in college, the less likely it is that they pass him.

    Another look at it could be: Are there other bigs that we can compare to Ayton/Bagley at the same age? And how many of does did become great defenders and how many did not?
  16. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    I'm at the point where I would probably take Miles Bridges over anyone with the exception of Bagley or Ayton. He's the only prospect that has the potential to be a really good offensive player and a GREAT defensive player. He's like Paul Millsap and Josh Smith smashed into one player. He would finally give the Kings what they've needed in that combo forward who can defend 4-5 positions.
  17. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    He also sees himself as a PF I think. That should make the Kings a bit uneasy as well considering they've had that issue before.
  18. Telemachus

    Telemachus Well-Known Member

    When you compare college players, you to look at their situations as well as their play. I like Jackson a lot, but He is on a team filled with veteran players who already knew the defense on a good defensive team. That by itself would make his defense look better.
    Bagley OTOH, is on a team starting 3 freshmen. It will take time for them to get on the same page defensively. Bagley has shown the ability to move his feet well on defense and reads the passing lanes pretty well. He also is playing more 4 than 5 because Carter is definitely a center.
  19. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    Miles or Mikal? Miles hasn't improved enough imo. He's not an effective shot creator and that's why I wouldn't target him. Kings need to look for a franchise player. I don't think Miles or Mikal can be that guy.
  20. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    Miles. He's a physical alpha and a lock down potential defender. You can't always look at Michigan St. guys and look at their college game, players like Miles translate very well to the NBA, or have the potential to. A bit of a boom/bust type but the boom would be huge.
  21. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    Right now I need to see Miles turn into more of an alpha scorer. He's limited to an off-ball 3pt shooter because of his lack of handles and wiggle room. He's limited to straight-line drives, but doesn't finish around the rim at a great rate. Need to see more shot creating from Miles. I think you'd like Mikal. He's another guy who can be a lock-down defender, but at SG.
  22. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    That's not really Izzo's system though. He's a terrific finisher and a bull when heading to the rim. I don't know if he'll ever be a stats guy, but he has the chance to be a Draymond Green type who impacts the game more than most scorers do. The Kings don't need another SG, and the physical aspect is what the Kings need the most after passing up players like OG Anunoby in previous years. There is just too much value is a player who can be a true SF/PF combo that can guard beyond those spots.
  23. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    They need a physical presence but they're going to be picking too high to get a guy like Miles. They're shooting for a 20ppg star this year, not a rock solid role player. If the Kings somehow get a 2nd first round pick, I'd be more than happy to nab Miles but I wouldn't pick him near the top of the lottery to be "the" guy because I think the chances are low of him becoming that good.
    206Fan likes this.
  24. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    And there are probably 2 or 3 of those in this draft. Miles has potential there too, and I think his potential is much higher than that of a role player. I think his floor is probably nothing less than that as well. I'm not sure the Kings don't already have a few guys able to take the bulk of the shots. The problem they'll have is continuously looking for that guy regardless of who they are or without considering who they have on the roster already. It's why I really think wasting time in seeing what kind of potential players like Buddy, Fox, or Skal have to be that player does nothing but damages your ability to scout best fits for your team moving forward. I look at this draft and past about 4 guys I don't see any clear cut offensive superstars. Miles Bridges's game, if it translates the NBA could make sense of a lot of what the Kings have going already.
  25. Dime Dropper

    Dime Dropper Well-Known Member

    You know what, just give me Doncic. Dude is not slowing down at all. What he's doing is pretty much unfathomable. The worst things you can say about him is that he's not an elite athlete. He's not a bad one either though, he's pretty deceptive and smooth. I also think his measurements will surprise people. He looks easily 6'8'' to me, and could possibly come in at 6'9'' in shoes. What enamours me is his passing and IQ. At his age, it's absolutely insane how good a passer and how smart a player he is. He's so composed, confident, a natural leader. Skill-wise he is just way, way ahead of anyone else in the world at his age. He really is similar to LeBron/Simmons with his ability to pass the ball, it's amazing to watch.

    One of Doncic/Ayton/Bagley/Porter and we are golden. The Philly trade is really disastrous because we will desperately need that 2019 1st rounder, and we're going to suck really bad. Have to hit on this draft.

    I don't think Miles Bridges should be looked at as a role player to be honest. That guy is going to surprise people. He is a bull, plays both sides of the ball, is extremely strong/athletic. I also love his motor and character. I'm a big fan.
    kingsfan1984 likes this.
  26. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    I would love one of those guys. The Kings need to increase their lotto chances for us to secure one of them. It's early as hell in the season, but the Kings should have suitors ready for ZBo and Hill in January.
    kingsfan1984 likes this.
  27. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    So do you think that Miles would be "the guy" here in Sacramento? Like lets say that our main guys turn into nothing more than good solid support type players, would you feel comfortable with Miles coming in and being our 20ppg scorer and #1 player for years to come? Maybe he's capable of more than what they're having him do in college but he seems like a high level 3&D guy more than he seems like a give me the rock and let me go to work kind of guy.
    206Fan likes this.
  28. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    I don't think he has to but that he could. I think between he, Fox, Skal, Bogdan, and Buddy, points wouldn't be an issue. Then on the other end with Fox at PG, Bogdan at SF, Miles at PF, and Willie at C you have a defensive death type of lineup where other teams will have to really work for their points. You're also talking about it like there are 5 guys that are guaranteed to carry an offense in his upcoming draft. Bagley I can see, although he has yet to show much game from the outside. Porter isn't nearly the impact defender or specimen that Bridges is but he might be able to be a true number 1 in time. Ayton I think is more numbers than substance, but I can see the argument. Doncic if on a team where he can run the point can reach his production potential. Still looks a bit like a bigger Dragic to me. Beyond that I think the only really intriguing name that I would consider as both a fit and in terms of potential right now is probably Knox.

    I think he has some similar moves/abilities to Carmelo when in triple threat situations.
  29. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    Bridges is also trying to prove he can transition to the wing, just like Draymond did in his time there. Draymond started as a C then proved he could play SF. Izzo is probably the best coach in the college game right now in grooming players to fit the NBA style. They play NBA style ball on both ends quite a bit.

  30. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    You aren't worried about points at all? Almost every playoff team has a 20ppg scorer that can take the ball and go put points on the board. The Kings don't have anyone that can do that right now. Fox and Bogdan haven't shown us their scoring chops yet. Skal has been very inconsistent and Buddy can put points on the board but you can't just give him the ball and let him take guys 1 on 1 with the game on the line. The #1 problem of the team at the moment has been putting points on the board and it would be even worse if ZBo wasn't channeling his prime self. I know it's early but there are still massive question marks when it comes to where the points are going to come from.

    Porter isn't the physical specimen Bridges is but he projects to be a true go to scorer. Doncic projects to being a #1 option version of Bogdan. Bagley looks like he's going to be good and Ayton has question marks for me as well but the sky is the limit for him. I just don't know about Bridges as being the face of the franchise. He's also only 6'7" so I don't see him playing a whole lot of PF unless it's specific matchups. I'm not knocking the guy at all because I would love to have him on this team but the Kings are backed against the wall in this draft and need to get the guy now or wait two years for another crack at it. I just wouldn't put my eggs in the Miles Bridges basket to be the guy who takes us back to the playoffs because the odds are quite a bit lower that he can be the #1 option than some of the other guys in the top 5.
    Tetsujin and 206Fan like this.

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