De'Aaron Fox:

Discussion in 'Personnel moves' started by bajaden, May 13, 2017.

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  1. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Although it's doubtful that the Kings will have a chance to draft Fox unless they make some sort of draft day trade, I thought it would be a good idea to do a just in case thread. I like Fox quite a bit, and I will admit that I'm a little biased toward Kentucky players. In general, their top players have a good success rate in the NBA. Fox is a freak athlete with an explosive first step off the dribble. He tends to play at warp speed, and despite that, he doesn't turn the ball over much, which attests to his ball handling ability.

    He has the potential to be a very good defender at the next level with above average lateral quickness. Although most of his defensive mistakes are due to a lack of BBIQ on the defensive end, (that's for Kingster) and a lack of strength (trouble fighting through screens). That said, there were no major criticisms of his defense this past season that leaped out at you.

    The biggest question had to to do with his ability to shoot off the dribble, and his overall shooting range. For most of the season he struggled with his three point shot, and in most instances, when off the dribble, his shot came up short. When squared up, and with his feet set, it was less of a problem. I'm including an article that does an excellent job of breaking down his shot mechanics, so I won't waste your time going over the same thing.

    I've watched a couple of Fox's recent workout videos, and he's made some corrections to his shot, and he appears to have spent a lot of time in the weight room as well. I should point out again that his shot improved the last third of the season, especially his mid-range shot, so that bodes well.

    And to further bore you, here's another article:

    As you can see in the video, he's a monster in the open floor. There's a lot to like, but his shot has to improve, and he has to get stronger. The two are probably related.
  2. Bosnian Diehard

    Bosnian Diehard Well-Known Member

    I'd love to draft him. I read he is moving past Lonzo Ball on some team's draft boards, though. I'm not sure what it would take to trade for him.
    ElRey likes this.
  3. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    This draft is hard to predict but the players I'm almost certain will be gone by #8 are Fultz, Jackson, Fox and Ball. I could see Lonzo Ball sliding a bit on draft day but I don't think he gets past #5. I think Fox goes in the 3-5 range.

    Would it be worth trading both picks to go and get Fox? I don't know. On the one had I think he'll be very good but I'm not sure that I see star potential from him unless his shot REALLY turns around to where it's a big weapon instead of a weakness. On the other hand, I don't think any of the players I rate highly will be left at 10 so from that perspective I think I'd rather have Fox than say Ntilikina and Markkanen or Collins.
  4. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Yeah, a lot depends on Fox improving his shot. It's the difference between going under screens and over them. I don't think he'll have any trouble getting to the basket, but I fear doubles as a result of his poor outside shot. There's reason to believe his shot will improve, but no guarantee's. Despite some of my reservations about Smith Jr., he has a lot of the same qualities that Fox has, less the height and length. Like Fox, he's a freak athlete, and one has to believe that he wasn't yet a 100% back from his injury this past season. If not, then his stock can only go up.
    kingdivac and kingsfan1984 like this.
  5. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    I enjoy watching this kid play, he really is fundamentally sound and that shot will not be an issue because he seems like he is a gym rat and he will put in the necessary work to progressively get better on that J. After he gets that down, he ought to wreck the league. He will make a franchise very happy. Too bad we won't be in a position to draft him. My second favorite PG in this draft.
  6. ElRey

    ElRey Well-Known Member

    Would love to get Fox. His elite speed, ability to create, and his length on defense is exactly what this team needs.
  7. kingsfan1984

    kingsfan1984 Well-Known Member

    If Fox is gone and Kings ate looking at Smith Nik and Isaac when picking at 8, i think they have to go with Smith.
    Too much potential. Being able to shoot from outside is huge for a guard in todays NBA and Smith has this ability already. Outside of Fultz Smith is the next best weapon offensively and arguably can be more explosive if he was held back from injury last year. Attitude concerns included, can't pass on a non raw superstar talent at 8. Isaac is ver raw and many queation marks tobpick ahead of Smith.
  8. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    If Minnesota does bless us by taking Markkanenn and this situation happens than you take Issac. This will allow us to take Nik at 10 I love Smiths potential but I also believe Issac is all star potential and that defense with those 2 picks, wcs, and Skal potential defense
  9. kingsfan1984

    kingsfan1984 Well-Known Member

    Thing i wonder about Isaac thatvscares me is he comes across a little sheepish like BMac. Is he going to be able to ascert himself at the NBA level when he wasnt able to do it at the college level? How did he not force a bigger role for himself when being as talented as he is that would have benifitted his team. Is he going to be a deer in the headlights player like bmac?
  10. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    That's not how it works. You don't decide how your going to play the game, your coach does. If you don't play the way he wants, you don't play. Florida St was a guard oriented team. Isaac simply didn't get the touches he should have had. There were games where he only got 5 or 6 shots. As I said a million times, he was a victim of the system. Anyone that saw Kevin Johnson play at Cal, wouldn't recognize that player as the Kevin Johnson that played in the NBA. No one knew that Cousins could put the ball on the floor, or shoot a jumper, because Calapari wouldn't let him stray from the basket at Kentucky. I could go on and on. I already mentioned Derrick Favors, who hardly got a chance to touch the ball in college. All Isaac needs is to be unchained.
    New Era and Joshoua like this.
  11. New Era

    New Era Well-Known Member

    I like Isaac too! Do you think there is a chance he falls to #8? Most mocks have him going in the top 6.
  12. Kingsfan23

    Kingsfan23 Well-Known Member

    Markannen/Collins are too good of prospects to move unless you highly favor a PG, and I don't see that distance between Fox/Smith/Nkitlina or even Ball. This draft is special in a way that is fortunate for us as fans to be deep to our second pick
    lwc likes this.
  13. ockingsfan

    ockingsfan Well-Known Member

    Suddenly, my number 1 point guard target, De'Aaron Fox, became a real possibility for us at #5. :)
  14. Sac.Kings

    Sac.Kings Well-Known Member

    A question for those that follow college ball a lot closer than I do...

    I like Fox a lot, but I do have a concern... what if he becomes the next Collison? Quick and agile, but unable to finish in the paint and gets pushed around on defense.... with a broken shot to boot. Thin guards like him aren't exactly tearing the league up at the moment. The best PGs all have 20-30lbs on Fox easily and are built much thicker (Westbrook, Chris Paul, Wall, even IT as short as he is; the only exception really is Curry, but he's the greatest shooter the league has ever seen). And let's be real, Fox isn't going to be able to add 20-30lbs of muscle nor should he, that's not his game and it would slow him down significantly.

    To those who have followed Fox all year, is my concern legitimate? Will he able to overcome his lack of strength/weight with his speed? Can he be a star or will he be Darren Collison 2.0? We can't afford to miss at 5.
  15. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    Even if Issac doesn't become a scorer he has
    Fox is still strong he's not getting pushed around by people not named Westbrook. Fox and Collison army even in the same league athletically Fox is way more explosive. At the combine Collisons running vertical was 33" UK pro day Fox standing vertical was 34" 33.5" if you add the standing reach difference from his combine and pro day. Fox standing jump being the same as D.C. Running jump shows you the difference in explosiveness in them now add in Fox being 2 inches taller 3inches longer and D.C. Shouldn't be compared to him
  16. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    D. Collison is a bad comp for Fox. His absolute floor is E. Payton with his ceiling being Wall with better defense.
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
  17. Sac.Kings

    Sac.Kings Well-Known Member

    Is he as good a passer as Wall? Like I said, Fox would be absolutely fine with me, but that thin frame does worry me. It can be rectified some by hitting the gym, so I guess it's not the biggest issue in the world.
  18. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    I'm still not sold on Fox. His non 3pt shooting scares the poopoo out of me. Learning to shoot is extremely difficult in the NBA. Fox is a hardworker, but I just don't think it's plausible to expect him to become a good 3pt shooter anytime soon. Lots of people love to bring up John Wall and Russell Westbrook, but they were better 3pt shooters than Fox in college. On top of that, there's been a large recent wave of non-shooting PGs who have busted in the NBA. I'm scared we'll end up drafting an Elfrid Payton. If Fox never learns to shoot, he's a NBA backup.

    Another weird thing I observed is that lots of people automatically assume that since he can't shoot, it means that he's a good playmaker. Not the case. He's only an average playmaker at best.

    He's such a talented prospect, and if this were 2010, I'd argue he's the 2nd best prospect in the draft. However, the NBA has completely shifted into 3pt shooting. Then on top of that! PnR has become a gigantic integrated part of every offense. PnR isn't going to be effective when your PG can't shoot.
    kingsfan1984 likes this.
  19. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    He's excellent in pick and roll.
    Also he doesn't have to be a good 3point shooter as long as he has to be respected from mid range.
  20. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    There isn't a single player in this lottery that doesn't come with risk ultimately it's Vlade's call and I'll trust it. Yes he needs to improve in many areas but he has great upside.
    206Fan likes this.
  21. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    Disagree. There's lots of picks that are set at the 3pt line. Defenders will just constantly go under the screen because Fox can't shoot the 3. This might mean the Kings will run PnR from the top of the key a lot more often. This will hurt floor spacing.
    Look at Curry and Green run the PnR. Curry's elite 3pt shooting ability makes defenses gamble on screens. If you go under, he's going to pull up a 3. If you go over, it forces the PnR defender to step up, leaving Green all by himself somewhere. If the rest of your teammates don't defend that play perfectly, Green will get an uncontested dunk, or Klay will get a wide open corner 3.
    Baja put 2 great and informative articles about his shot, and the importance of being able to shoot off the dribble in the NBA. I think his shot needs a ton of fixing. The article mentions that his lack of strength could attribute to his inconsistencies. This makes it scarier knowing that he's extremely light at only 169lbs. So does this mean, as he bulks up, his shot will continue to be inconsistent?

    Fox is talented, but I feel like there's prospects who are just as talented, without shooting questions at #5.
    kingsfan1984 likes this.
  22. White_Chocolate

    White_Chocolate Well-Known Member

    Tatum or Jackson would be great as well at 5, but I do love what Fox brings to the table.
  23. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    I suppose it depends on what Vlade has in mind in terms of style of play going forward. What Fox has that can't be taught is elite quickness and speed. Buddy and Malachi both move well off the ball and don't over dribble so a guard who can get collapse the defense could be just the ticket for them and create lobs for WCS, Skal and OG;).
    Blob likes this.
  24. KingsFanSince85

    KingsFanSince85 Well-Known Member

  25. KingsFanSince85

    KingsFanSince85 Well-Known Member

    I like Jackson, but we've not had the best of luck with players from Kansas -- or even Duke for that matter.
  26. Suicide King

    Suicide King Well-Known Member

    Just for reminders sake, we do have one of the all time best shooters working in the front office. If all Fox needs is to add strength and to adjust his shooting mechanics some then those are attainable goals and you have a potential top level floor general for years.

    All indications I have seen or read show his shot isn't broken. Am I wrong about that?
  27. Mass

    Mass Well-Known Member Contributor

    Actually, shooting is the skill you can improve the most in the NBA. There are so many examples of players who weren't good shooters and became very good. DMC anyone?

    Fox won't be Steph Curry, but I have no doubt he can be decent from 3. His shooting mechanic is not bad, there's a lot of room from improvement.
    Joshoua likes this.
  28. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    With shooting improvements the reality is that most guys can improve with hard work but that (1) it takes time and (2) guys who come out as non shooters rarely become knockdown shooters.

    Kawhi Leonard is an anomaly. He may have made the biggest/most rapid improvement in NBA history.

    But Bobby Jackson came out of Minnesota as a poor outside shooter and worked to be a threat from outside. Mike Conley took about the same number of three's per game at Ohio State as Fox did this season while shooting 30% from outside. This season Conley took 6 threes per game and shot nearly 41% from outside.

    The concerns are that Fox shot even worse percentage wise than Conley did in college - just under 25%. That and he just seemed to have no confidence in his outside jumper.

    The reasons for hope are that (1) he shot better in high school (2) his shooting percentage at Kentucky is based on a small sample size (just 69 threes all season) and that (3) his mechanics look pretty good.

    Everyone knew going in that Elfrid Payton's shot was broken. Fox may just need a few tweaks and lots of practice & confidence.

    The Kings will get a good sense of where his shot will end up based on the improvement (or lack thereof) he makes in preparing for the draft and during workouts.
  29. kingsfan1984

    kingsfan1984 Well-Known Member

    The biggest concerm is Fox jumper...however, he shows a nice floater ala Tony Parker. If we assume he never improves beyond low 30% 3pt shooter, does his floater game make up for this lack of 3pt jumper and raise his floor from a Elfrid to a Parker with great defense?
  30. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    When I watched Smart (28.3%), Mudiay (31.7%), and Payton (27.4%) shoot the three, I could tell they had no feel for shooting the ball what so ever. Poor rotation on the ball. Missing left and right of the basket, along with poor form on their shot. I felt that none of those three will ever be a good shooter. And if you know anything about me, I have no use for a PG that can't shoot the ball. Yet, I like Fox? Yep, because he's an entirely different player with entirely different reasons for missing his shots. You can't just go with percentages. Yeah, they give you the results, but don't tell you why.

    Fox's shots have very good rotation on them, and they're almost always on line. When he misses, he usually misses either long, or short. Most of his misses from beyond the arc, especially those he took a foot or more beyond the college three point line, ended up being on line, but short. A lot of his mid-range shots when he was stepping back, and or falling away, came up a bit short. That indicates a lack of strength, particularly lower body strength from the three. That's a very correctable problem once in a NBA training room.

    Add in that he played at warp speed, and took too many shots at that speed. He also took too many highly contested shots, and off balance shots. Just improving his shot selection will increase his average. Also some minor tweaks in his form, mostly in his lower body will also improve his shot. He was inconsistent with the spacing of his feet, and with squaring up. Other than that, his form was fine. These are all things that can be corrected, and with Fox being a very hard worker, and with a chip on his shoulder, I think he'll eventually be a good shooter.
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